The Climate Emergency and Principles for an Energy Transition
The decarbonation challenge as a response to the climate emergency
For decades, the global energy and electricity mixes have been based mainly upon fossil fuels and characterized by a certain inertia. The global carbon budget informs on the residual timing to limit the global warming to 1.5°C by 2100. Above all, the planet has consumed around 86% of its carbon budget. This means that, the residual carbon budget in a 1.5°C scenario is only 14%. According to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), this represents less than 15 years of CO2 worldwide emissions (based on 2019 global CO2 emissions). That is to say the climate clock has triggered the countdown for immediate climate action.
The current energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine not only implies to find new alternatives in terms of energy supply but also to accelerate the decarbonation of the global economy.
This energy transition is specific since objectives go beyond simply adding a new energy layer to existing energies. Indeed, without a significant modification of consumption and production patterns, the planet's carbon budget will be exceeded. The challenge is to decarbonise the economy by relying on all climate change stakeholders, and not solely energy firms.
Obviously, a coherent first step is to reduce drastically the use of coal. Indeed, coal represents around 27% of the global energy mix and around 14% of EU electricity mix. Unfortunately, coal emits twice more CO2 than gas. However, a perfect and uniform global energy policy on a short-term horizon is a pledge. On a theoretical level, a “perfect energy policy” should be :
- decarbonised,
- respective of consumers purchasing power,
- industrially competitive,
- and secure in terms of energy supply.
Not surprisingly, on a short and medium-term horizon, trade-offs must be made between these five objectives.
Post-crisis recovery plans: missed opportunities for decarbonation?
The post-lockdown economic recovery plans (2300 billion USD at the global scale) offered an opportunity to strengthen the resilience of the global economy to prevent future climate crises, but the opportunity was not seized. Only 2% (380 billion USD) of the recovery investments were targeted to decarbonised projects with an increasing gap between the “Global North” and the “Global South” climate policies. These projects have engaged only 20% of the required investments to decarbonise economies. Unfortunately, the plans relied mainly on coal as a response to the strong rebound of industrial electricity consumption.
It is regrettable, since green recovery plans strengthen the resilience of economies by reducing the frequency and impacts of future climate damages. Even countries with significant levels of climate-friendly investments have maintained “brown” public investments (in either budgetary or fiscal expenses).
What Levers Should Be Used to Achieve a Decarbonized Economic Growth?
Decarbonation: the path to reconcile economic growth and climate action
Reinforcing attenuation and engaging adaptation of the global economy are the subject of a consensus, but how to proceed? Here below are three guiding principles to follow.
- First, the energy transition and the fight against global warming are everyone’s business. It implies a shift of supply chains for most companies with prior corresponding carbon’s profiles evaluations. However, the concept of carbon neutrality is relevant on scopes 1, 2 and 3 of carbon emissions. Therefore, cooperation with client industries to impact the industrial ecosystem (including public-private partnerships) is crucial.
- Secondly, efficient energy and climate policies must consider the heterogeneity of national contexts before defining corresponding roadmaps with a preferred decentralized approach. The latter is enabled by the increased digitalization of the energy sector.
- Thirdly, in health and climate matters, it is necessary to adopt a global perspective and use all efficient levers simultaneously.
